Speculating about the Speculators

Speculation has been around a long time, but I think in the past couple of decades it seems to have taken on a new form altogether. It has grown into the practice of meta-speculation. It is largely practiced by a new class of “knowledge” workers whose primary job is to offer “expert” opinion on any topic that may be of interest to any particular audience. It may be about a broad topic with general appeal like politics, business or sports or it could pertain to smaller niche audiences. (I acknowledge that I reside in a dwelling made of a breakable see through material.)

It is a fascinating phenomenon for a number of self-perpetuating reasons:

1. “Experts” offering opinions almost beget more “experts” offering their own “expert” opinion. (It is a bit like lawyers creating the need for more lawyers)

2. The expansion of media and programming that offers this kind of commentary and analysis provides an increasing number of opportunities for the “experts” to gain exposure to promote their own views and services. (Again, I realize that I live in a glass house)

3. The consequences for the “expert” commentator are minimal. Even if they prove to be wrong, this can actually be turned into a positive as opposed to a reason to run away and hide in shame. This is not surprising since the notion of shame, should probably be listed as an endangered species in our “have no-shame” get me onto a reality TV program culture.

4. This form of information actually seems to be what the “market” prefers. If the advertising of the media outlets is to be believed, “information consumers” want to be told what the facts mean as opposed to just what the facts are. I definitely fall into the Dragnet “just the facts” school on this one, but rampant speculation based on a fragment of facts fill the airwaves.

Yeah, so what is the point?

The point is that this cultural reliance on expert opinion makers and their presentation of the facts makes it much harder to make objective, rational decisions. Collectively, we would probably all be a whole lot better off, if decision making relied on data and facts as opposed to speculation presented as fact.

There is a place for speculation. Speculation can create wealth for those who invest their time, money and effort in their ideas that turn out to be on target, but speculation can be devastating if their ideas turn out to miss the mark. Speculation by those who take home a healthy paycheck whether they are right or wrong shouldn’t have as much impact on our decisions as they sometimes appear to have.